Jul 02 2010
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This is the full transcript of my recent interview with Prof Dan Breznitz of Georgia Tech Order ambien online cheap, , which informed both a piece I did for the Review section on Saturday, looking at what Ireland could learn from Israel on the tech front, and my column this Friday.
I first met Dan Breznitz when he was a student working on his MIT PhD. His thesis, later to become an award-winning book (Innovation and the State: Political Choice and Strategies for Growth in Israel, Taiwan, and Ireland), kjøpe ambien online, examined the state policies and issues that went into producing highly successful high-tech economies in the past decade in in Israel, Ireland and Taiwan. He extensively interviewed people in Ireland and lived here for a period and perhaps, with an outsider's perspective coupled with lengthy time spent in Ireland, Ohio OH , is better positioned than most to offer a neutral and incisive analysis of this country's policies.
This is the interview:
(what led to economic success in Israel and Ireland?)
In part, in Israel and Ireland: in both cases you have a lot of very good civil servants. None were prophets, and no one knew what would happen as a result of the decisions they took, order ambien online cheap.
(States make policy choices that end up having unforeseen consequences) Those choices mean you have very specific capabilities. This is where I think some mistakes were made in Ireland in 2000 and 2001 for which the Irish high-tech industry is still paying.
In both cases (Ireland and Israel) it’s basically the same industries–the most storied being ICT, order ambien c.o.d.. In Israel– they took the perspective that as long as it’s a good idea and you can move it into a product you don’t have to become an IBM to sell it -- The silicon and source code approach. Order ambien online cheap, Israel has become an outpost of Silicon Valley and directly chose a very specific institutional approach with a dependency on a very particular formula of venture capital and money coming from the US. VCs of course like “the fastest and biggest”. But if all the money is coming from abroad most of the gains will concentrate in the few (who could afford to make investments in Israel, or who work in the jobs in the tech sector), Order ambien, or go back to the US investors. This has resulted in a horrific inequality in Israel.
In order to excel in that system you really need to have your private institutions tied into it. You need lots of startups because most fail (statistically it is well established that about 9 in 10 fail), order ambien online cheap. In Israel, you are no longer building great companies, but great companies to sell, buy ambien overnight delivery. There’s unbelievable R&D, and unbelievable innovation. But it’s all in one industrial sector (technology). If you take that industry out of Israel… in the 70s and 80s Israel was in a horrific situation. Order ambien online cheap, Inflation rose 100,000% in less than a decade. Billige ambien Apotheke, In Israel now they have the attitude that this is the only thing that works so we have to make sure we have the environment and the people. But academic capabilities are declining. The question is, how do we make sure more fruits go to the general Israeli economy.
As for Ireland: Ireland latched onto the ability of really big companies to outsource and offshore – mostly to offshore. The fragmentation of production globally meant Ireland could move towards manufacturing, order ambien online cheap. But then started a quite interesting opportunity around the mini computer revolution which created quite a number of interesting companies, buy cheap ambien. Those opportunities then failed over time but something else began. I think not enough credit is given to the Irish university system which was very poor, and had extremely limited resources.
People decided to stay in Ireland and built an impressive succession of companies. Order ambien online cheap, There was Iona, and direct spinoffs, and many TCD/UCD core companies. Cheap ambien, But then two things happened. The first was the real estate boom. It’s very hard to be an entrepreneur in a real estate boom. A lot of talent moves to real estate–and why not, it’s much easier to make money then to work hard and build a company. And 2, there was a misunderstanding by the state of what those companies do, what they are coming from and what support they needed, order ambien online cheap.
And I will say that I was critical, kjøpe ambien, and even a little bit fearful, of Irish policy in my book well before we have seen these results. The problem was and is, the state had a stranglehold via the IDA and Enterprise Ireland on every single level. Ordering ambien no prescription, The state was too involved. The VCs in Ireland had 15 to 20 years of attempting to build companies – but I think we can say none were really VCs in the internationally understood sense of the term, and none were very good. Order ambien online cheap, Think of the amount of money channeled into VC funds in the years since the dotcom crisis, and the Irish high tech industry has been in stagnation – in decline. – yet those were the years when Irish VCs had the most money of anywhere bar Massachusetts and Silicon Valley. I think this was a failure of policy because by then, (the government) had a proof of concept – that Irish men and women can create very successful companies, order ambien online without prescription. There were seven Irish IPOs on the NASDAQ. But the industry was given a blow to the stomach by the very institutions in which it was located.
But one of the good things that was started was the massive investment into the university sector, with some successes, order ambien online cheap. But (the state) expects turn around too fast – in five years. But it takes seven or eight years or so to finish a PhD. Ordering ambien pills, If you want to generate change, you have at least a seven year time lag and at least 10 to 15 years before you really start to see something happen. The best universities in the world cannot produce world-renowned researchers in less than seven years and only then do those people start to play. Order ambien online cheap, Another mistake is the very strong concentration on the state of only a few sectors (which reduces the ability to have flexibility in innovation).
Also the state basically killed off every attempt by Irish universities to get EU funds. It would have been better if they could have said, we will give one euro for every two coming from the EU, goedkope ambien apotheek. Ireland has yet to see the fruits of this approach. It’s also a ridiculous idea that IP somehow transforms into millions or billions of euro. In the whole ICT sector, how many companies actually make billions out of IP, order ambien online cheap. Very few.
Ireland had a specific idea of multinational companies, Buy ambien no prescription, of what Irish companies do and can do. (This very fixed view has meant) you have a complete stagnation of the Irish startup scene. In particular you had little money to go through to it; people focused on real estate; and people didn’t understand what Irish companies are and how they go about what they do. Order ambien online cheap, Instead there has been a focus on other countries, which have completely different strengths. There’s been an attempt to reconfigure the Irish institutional system, which has been in some ways successful and some ways horrific. But what’s needed really is a thorough analysis of the situation in Ireland – not in Israel – or in Finland, osta alennus ambien.
(If you really want to start generating jobs and value through startups) you need a lot of startups. 20 startups a year is a no go. 40 startups is a no go, order ambien online cheap. You need 400 startups a year. Most will fail without even doing anything. Ambien without a prescription, This is where I would urge some different policy directions. In that sense I think the current crisis might be the best thing that ever happened to Ireland. Order ambien online cheap, The system that Enterprise Ireland created for startup creation has been dysfunctional since around ‘99 to 2000. The results are there – absolute stagnation.
(One good thing is that the people remain a resource in Ireland). In the current situation there are people out of work but they are people with skills and because the crisis is international and all across Europe everyone won’t be immigrating this time.
One myth is that venture capital is a policy tool, order ambien online. No – it’s a financial industry that aims to make a lot of money, order ambien online cheap. Okay, they might on the way create successful companies – but mainly they want to sell the companies they invest in, to bigger companies. When Israel took the policy decisions it did it already had about 4000 companies in existence. Kjøp Discount ambien, It then unleashed a very small number of VCs and they picked out the very best. And then each year, hundreds more companies are created. Order ambien online cheap, If you create vibrant industries, people are not afraid of creating startups because they know they can go to a new job if the company they are in fails. One way of mitigating risk for Irish people is to create a system where if a startup implodes, you don’t face insolvency. But where Ireland is right now – there are very few big companies left to come in (as a foreign direct investment strategy), Indiana IN Ind. . What’s much more important is to really create a lot more companies and create policy vehicles which enable companies to be created. I wouldn’t say to re-create Silicon Valley should be the holy Grail. I understand why that’s attractive but Silicon Valley is unique, order ambien online cheap.
It’s a myth that innovation should be defined solely as novel products and gadgets. Innovation should be seen to be for everything from invention and science to selling existing products and services at a higher profit. Acheter ambien, Innovation can be new ways to produce stuff, new logistics. Ireland gets that. Order ambien online cheap, For example, biotechnology has been a focus of the government and is an example of what Ireland does extremely well. You want to be looking at the available strengths and faculties and build on them to create unique products and services.
(If you want to try to excel in a particular sector) you need an unbelievable amount of innovation at certain levels. Taiwan excels at producing chips because they facilitated a system that lets them excel at that, ambien prescription. Silicon Valley’s focus now is to create new technologies, but they hardly produce anything anymore. Ireland cannot be only focused on those multinational companies, order ambien online cheap. You need to ask, at which stage of production does Ireland excel, Order ambien online cheap, and then the question is how to create a system to make that sustainable.
(Should Ireland focus as Israel has on bringing in foreign VC investment?). Well it’s okay if you’ve got 4000 companies. VC money will come if it can make a process happen and foreign VCs would be good because many Irish VCs just can’t do it. Order ambien online cheap, That money will come and stay only if they can become profitable. But they will come to make first stage or second stage investments; not seed investments, not early investments that startups need, Koop korting ambien. And think of the reality of what they are looking for. Imagine seven of the top Silicon Valley VCs came to Ireland and stayed for three months – they would want to see maybe 1000 businesses because they would want to make about 100 investments and only one out of 10 companies they would see would probably be worth an investment if you take a typical ratio. And only 10 of those, will be successes for them because out of those 100, Ordering ambien online legally, 90% will die. Those are just the usual number is in the venture industry – you will look at 1000 companies and maybe only 10 will bring a return, order ambien online cheap. Will you find that many startups in Ireland. Now there was a time at the end of the 90s when (finding that number of startups in Ireland) might have been the case but now we’ve seen 10 years of stagnation.
If you analyze how startups were being formed and financed at the time and analyze the policy at the time you realize a significant amount of blame went on the state institutions and now, we know, on the financial institutions, buy ambien pills. The difficulties now are in part the economy and in part past policies and part dotcom crash. Order ambien online cheap, (Breznitz pointed out many of these things in his book, written in the first half of this decade and published in 2007). The book was written a good three to four years before the financial crisis, so all of this was apparent if anyone looked and understood how global production really works.
(One of Ireland’s real strengths is) there’s an unbelievably huge goodwill towards the Irish people from all around the world. It’s capital – it’s an unbelievable resource. Compare that to Israel or to Finland.
If you want startups–how are they going to come through, how are they going to be financed, how are you going to convince people who have been burned to go back and start companies again, order ambien online cheap. One puzzle for me is how the Irish state, since the 50s and 60s, has been biased against local companies, and for multinationals. Irish companies are treated as if they are unimportant. When an Irish startup goes bankrupt, it is seen as a betrayal of hope.
If this financial crisis has proven anything, it is that the ownership of companies truly matters. Order ambien online cheap, Look what happened in the US – when the big companies failed they went to Uncle Sam for help. The US multinationals love Ireland, but they are not Irish. There is a balance needed between multinationals and local companies. And now because of the financial crisis maybe the whole system of banks that control Ireland can be restructured and maybe there will be a rethinking of institutional structures and policy.
(He is now working on a book that examines many of the same issues in China). My book on China asks some of the same questions -- there are many ways to innovate, and those many ways necessitate different institutions and policies, and are sustainable. I think China shows that once prestige is out of the way in policy, you can have economic growth, jobs, and some semblance of equality – of opportunity, and of resources.
(Prof Breznitz’s book on China is due out later this year, published by Yale University Press.).
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